COB 291

Decision Theory Research

1) The payoff desk showing profit for a decision analysis problem with two decisions and 3 states of nature is usually shown beneath.

a. Resolve this problem utilizing a payoff matrix

b. Build a decision shrub for this trouble.

c. Measure the decision forest.

2) Suppose a decision manufacturer is up against four decisions alternatives and four states of nature because shown inside the table below.

a. Solve this problem utilizing a payoff matrix

b. Create a decision tree for this trouble.

c. Measure the decision woods.

3) You are a wagering person and wish to bet on the State University varsity/alumni game. (In various other words you could have a betting addiction and you are going to bet. ) You may have no information on the odds for either team's winning. The only information you could have is that the college has received 12 as well as the alumni possess won eight. Ties are broken simply by sudden loss of life playoffs. You may have an opportunity to carry out some research in to the strengths and weaknesses from the two groups; the outcome of this research can predict a victor. The only wager you can make is an even $100.

I1 = research implies varsity will win.

I2 = exploration indicates the alumni is going to win.

S1 = college will succeed.

S2 sama dengan alumni is going to win.

P(I1|S1) =. seventy

P(I2|S1) sama dengan. 30

P(I1|S2) =. forty five

P(I2|S2) sama dengan. 60

a. Draw the choice tree and label that.

b. Evaluate the tree

c. What is your strategy and EMV?

g. What is one of the most that you will be willing to pay pertaining to to do the investigation for you? elizabeth. Assuming that the games are fixed. Simply how much would you end up being willing to pay anyone who fixes the online games to tell you which of them team will probably win? 4) An olive oil company need to decide regardless of whether to exercise an essential oil well in a specific area. The choice maker believes that the area could be dried out, reasonably great, or a bonanza, with the respective probabilities of. 40,. forty five, and. twenty. If the very well is dry out, no earnings is...

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